Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity (VUCA) in Context of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Challenges and Way Forward

Sathiabalan Murugan; Saranya Rajavel; Arun Kumar Aggarwal; Amarjeet Singh

Sathiabalan Murugan Senior Resident, Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh
Saranya Rajavel Senior Resident, Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh
Arun Kumar Aggarwal Professor, Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh
Amarjeet Singh Professor and Head, Department of Community Medicine and School of Public Health, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh

Keywords: VUCA, Covid-19, Uncertainty, Volatility, Complexity, Ambiguity, Pandemic

Abstract

In 1987, United States Army War College introduced the acronym “VUCA” which was abbreviated as Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity to describe the unstable geopolitical conditions following the end of cold war. Following Industrial revolution 4.0, this acronym was being widely used in various fields like business and organizations to describe the chaotic, turbulent and rapidly changing business environment.

We have applied this approach in the context of Corona Virus Disease -2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. We have explained how rapidly changing situation in terms of transmission of infections and uncertinty related to various decisions for control measures in terms of extent of lock down, how to unlock?, what to unlock?, quarantine measures, etc are linked to the complexity and ambiguity associated with the exisitng and the rapidly changing knowledge about the infection and disease. This also justifies that in such situations it is important to act upon the available information howsoever incomplete it may be rather than to wait for the robust evidence. Experimentation, constatnt learning and adoption of changed evidence for revised action is the key to tackle such situations.